If Boris Johnson gets a majority on December 12, it’s game over for pro-Europeans. If he fails to, it’s game on. So pro-Europeans must vote for the candidate with the best chance of beating the Tory wherever they are. In Kensington, that candidate is the Lib Dem, Sam Gyimah.
The latest poll shows the Lib Dems in second place, just behind the Tories. They are on 36% compared to 33%, with Labour on 27%, according to a Deltapoll survey published in the Observer.
What’s more, Gyimah has a good chance of closing the gap. When asked how they would vote if only the Lib Dems and the Tories had a realistic chance of winning, Kensington voters split 56% for the Lib Dems and 38% for the Conservatives. Labour would be squeezed to just 5%. That shows that its vote is ripe for the picking by Gyimah.
By contrast, when asked how they would vote if only Labour and the Tories had a realistic chance of winning, the Lib Dem vote would split equally. As a result, the Conservatives would win with 50% and Labour trailing on 41%.
Opinion polls must always be taken with a pinch of salt. But the verdict in Kensington is pretty clear. A vote for Labour will be wasted even though its candidate, Emma Dent Coad, narrowly won the last election. Pro-Europeans of whatever stripe should back Gyimah so the Tory doesn’t slip through the middle.
Hugo Dixon is chair of InFacts and a Kensington resident.
InFacts advises tactical voting in the coming election. Pro-Europeans should back the candidate with the best chance of defeating the Tory, so long as that candidate supports a new referendum.
Any particular reason for picking Kensington to focus on? Fair enough, it’s a decent example with recent polling, but there must be other examples throughout the country that would also help to convey the message that “this isn’t just happening in some posh Remainer suburb, this could be your patch as well”. Or is it just the opportunity of a famous face?
@Alex Scott – Think you’d need to ask the pollsters why they chose these boroughs.
But this is a dilema for all Pro Europeans who just want to defeat Johnson/Farage.
My constituency must be typical of many in the outer commuter belt around London. We need to displace a doctrinaire Brexiteer Tory MP, but in 2017 Labour got comfortably into 2nd position, with Lib Dems lagging at some distance in 3rd place.
The tactical voting sites, are suggesting vote Labour in my case, seemingly solely for that reason, yet common sense suggests that disaffected Tories are more likely to vote Lib Dem than for Corbyn’s Labour. In addition the LibDems trashed the others at the recent Euro elections.
I wonder if Hugo can offer a view on the reliability of the tactical sites advice.