Polling shows growing support for staying in EU

Peter Kellner is former president of YouGov.

With deadlock in Westminster over how to move forward with Brexit, what are the polls saying about people’s changing attitudes towards leaving the EU? The latest YouGov survey for the People’s Vote campaign contains three important messages.

1. Staying in the EU now holds a commanding lead over the government’s deal

Views of voters match those of MPs, in rejecting Theresa May’s deal by almost two-to-one. And Conservative voters, like Conservative MPs, are divided, with half of them backing her deal and one in three opposed.

For most of this year, polls have shown “Remain” ahead of “Leave” typically by four to six points.

But in a referendum between staying in the EU and leaving on the terms that the government has negotiated, staying enjoys an 18-point lead: 59-41%.

Of the 17 million who voted Leave in 2016, just 10 million people say they would vote for the government’s deal – two million would vote to stay, while three million are not sure or would not vote.

In contrast, of the 16 million who voted Remain in 2016, 13.5 million would still vote to stay in the EU. Only 1.4 million would vote for May’s deal and one million are not sure or would not vote.

And pro-Europeans are significantly more enthusiastic than Brexiters. Counting only those who say they are certain to vote in a “no Brexit” versus “May’s deal” referendum, staying in the EU currently leads by 63-37%. An 18-point lead among all voters therefore widens eight points to 26% among those certain to vote.

2. Millions of 2016’s Leave voters have lost faith in Brexit’s ability to make life better

Few erstwhile Leave voters now think Brexit will make life better. Three months ago, 43% of Leave voters thought Brexit would make it stronger. Just 12% feared it would make the economy weaker.

Today, only 24% of Leave voters say “stronger”, while slightly more, 26%, say “weaker”. That’s a huge 33-point drop for “stronger” in the net difference between the two views since the beginning of September.

There have also been marked falls in Leave voters’ optimism about people’s standard of living and the NHS.

In all three cases, pro-Europeans’ views have changed little. They are just as pessimistic now as they were three months ago.

3. Labour could suffer badly if it ends up facilitating Brexit

Labour is seeking an early general election. YouGov asked people how they would vote if Labour, along with the Conservatives, supported going ahead with Brexit. Labour slumps to third place, with 22%, behind the Liberal Democrats, who would jump to 26%.

Those who voted Labour last year and Remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%).

The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted Leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among Leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among Leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

Moreover, most Labour Leave voters who take sides back a People’s Vote, by 56-44%. Again, the evidence suggests little downside to Labour backing a People’s Vote. Indeed, among Labour supporters generally, such a vote is massively popular, with 77% in favour and just 23% against.

A further challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is to persuade voters that he could get a better Brexit deal if he were prime minister. This claim is rejected by 68-11% by voters generally, by 47-30% by Labour voters, and – perhaps most ominously – by 52-23% by Labour Leave voters.

A parallel question provides one fragment of relief for the prime minister, though a blow for the Brexit project generally. Just 18% of voters (and 20% of Conservatives) think a different leader could get a better Brexit deal – 60% of all voters (and 70% of Conservatives) disagree.

All the signs are pointing to the public losing faith in Brexit fast. It’s clear we need a People’s Vote.