MPs may eventually need to kick Boris Johnson out of Downing St and hold an election. But they should first try to force him to hold a referendum.
Jeremy Corbyn’s invitation last night to MPs across the political spectrum to join him in a no-confidence vote against the prime minister is premature.
There are two problems with the Labour leader’s proposal. First, he doesn’t yet have the numbers in Parliament to bring Johnson down, take over as caretaker prime minister, ask the EU for extra time and then call an election.
Second, even if he did have the numbers, it would be a mistake to trigger an election now because the pro-European parties are so divided that the Conservatives may well win. That may change if they form an effective “Remain Alliance”, but that’s still not fully formed.
Labour itself isn’t a pro-European party, despite the latest shift in Corbyn’s letter. He now says that, if there’s an election, it will back a new referendum which includes the option to stay in the EU – but he doesn’t say whether the party would back “remain” in such a people’s vote.
There’s a better plan: pass legislation forcing the current prime minister to ask the EU for extra time. Then hold a referendum on whether to stay in the EU. If Labour and sensible MPs in other parties focus on this now, they’ll probably succeed.
It’s only if they fail that MPs should switch to Corbyn’s plan for a vote of no confidence. By that time, there probably will be the numbers to bring Johnson down. But it may still be unclear whether the Labour leader can get enough support to lead an emergency government.
At the moment, the Lib Dems are hostile and there’s no sign yet of any Tory MPs being prepared to put Corbyn in Downing St – even though it would only be for an extremely short period of time. So there’s a risk of a stand-off – with Labour insisting on Corbyn as caretaker prime minister and other parties insisting on somebody else.
In such a scenario, Johnson could stay in power and hold the election after we had crashed out of the EU. With the national interest at stake, good sense will hopefully reign and MPs will rally around somebody. But until and unless it is clear they can, it’s even more important to try the referendum route first.