EU talks soft while preparing for hardest Brexit

For the best part of a year, there has been a suspicion in Brussels, scarcely masked by Michel Barnier and his team, that Theresa May would take the Brexit talks to the brink in the hope of last-minute concessions from the EU. For even longer, the prime minister has been hoping that such an impasse would panic some of the other 27 EU countries into blurring their red lines to allow a modicum of British cherry picking.

Despite all the talk of a “partnership without precedent” and being “stubbornly optimistic” at a press conference between Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier today, neither looked like they were about to blink first. The same tired platitudes were repeated alongside talk of “concern” and “urgency”, not least around how to solve the problem of the border in Ireland.

Downing Street mistakenly thought that the EU’s united front would have begun to dissolve at the beginning of this year. Instead, the fraying threads holding the Conservative party together have been the first to give way, dissolving any real possibility of governing party unity in favour of the Chequers proposals.

With David Lidington, May’s deputy, saying “it must be Chequers or no deal” the Commission’s expectations have been fulfilled and Downing Street’s have not.  Barnier and his colleagues have made it clear key aspects of Chequers are non-runners because they would compromise the internal market and customs union. The prime minister should not get her hopes high about vaguely emollients noises coming out of France: these are largely a polite thank you to May for dropping by in August.

As the negotiations on a Withdrawal Agreement and political declaration on the future relationship drift towards their closing phase, both sides are now setting up for a blame game. London will try to mislead the British public into thinking intransigent Europeans were always bent on angry failure.

For the Europeans, especially those in Brussels, Paris and Berlin there has never been a greater need to stand by the letter of EU laws and principles, even if the price is no deal. These cannot be bent in first one direction then another for the sake of a special relationship with the UK – especially now that they are going to have to survive grievous populist challenges from Warsaw, Budapest and Rome that are rather more fearsome than Brexit.

The best outcome for the other 27 EU states would be adoption of a detailed political declaration setting clear objectives for negotiation during the post-Brexit transition period.  These are unlikely to cleave to the Chequers template especially on those governance issues compromising the authority of the European Court of Justice. The Withdrawal Agreement itself would also have to include detailed wording on a backstop to keep the Irish border open.

But what is the chance that May could make the necessary compromises when hardline Brexiters such as Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are breathing down her neck? Even if she does further blur her red lines, will she be able to get MPs to approve any deal?

Today Barnier signed off: “Our work is continuous, it will continue.” But he knows a deadline is coming up fast. In the circumstances, it is not surprising that the EU is making emollient noises while preparing for the worst.