The prime minister just made emergency statement to say what exactly? That he’ll break law, resign, call an election or go back on his word. Take your pick.
After all the briefing that he was going to call an election this evening, Boris Johnson’s said he didn’t want an election – and the public didn’t want one either. But the prime minister also said one other thing – that, in no circumstances, would he ask the EU to delay Brexit beyond October 31.
The snag is that this week Parliament is likely to pass a law requiring the prime minister to do precisely that, after crude attempts to blackmail Tory rebels backfired. The text of the Bill being promoted by Hilary Benn, the chair of the House of Commons Brexit Committee, was published this evening.
So how will Johnson reconcile a promise not to ask for an extension with Parliament’s likely insistence that he must?
Well, the bill actually gives him two let-out clauses: he could do a deal with the EU and get it through Parliament; or he could persuade MPs to agree to crash out with no deal at all. There’s little chance of either of those happening. And if neither happens by October 19, the prime minister must ask the EU to delay Brexit until January 31.
So what else is Johnson left with? Well, one option would be to tell the Queen not to give Royal Assent to the law, an idea he refused to rule out in an interview with the Sunday Times. Another would be to break the law – something Michael Gove refused to rule out in an interview with the BBC yesterday. Both of these would amount to a coup.
If Johnson doesn’t want to descend deeper into the heart of darkness, he has several alternatives. One would be to resign. The legislation, after all, only calls on the “prime minister” to ask the EU for extra time. (See clause 1(4)). He wouldn’t have to ask for a delay if he was no longer prime minister. That would be his successor’s duty. The snag is that he would then be the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.
Election calling?
Another option would be to try to call an election, win an overall majority and change the new law – all before October 19. The earliest an election could now be called is on October 14 – the date the ITV’s Robert Peston tweeted would be chosen if MPs do pass their legislation.
Johnson may still try to do this despite saying he didn’t want an election. But he doesn’t have the power to do so unilaterally. He must first persuade two-thirds of MPs to vote in favour of one – and the opposition would be foolish to say “yes” unless he first delayed Brexit.
If Johnson lost an election but Jeremy Corbyn didn’t get an overall majority, he could theoretically hang onto power until Parliament was recalled – and a sitting prime minister can advise the Queen when to do that. Even if he promised an early recall, nobody should believe him given how much he has already played fast and loose with our democracy.
There’s another problem for Johnson with the snap election idea. Say he won it on October 14. Parliament couldn’t be recalled for a few days. It would then have to choose a Speaker, MPs would have to swear an oath and there would have to be a Queen’s Speech. All that would have to happen before he could change back the law so he didn’t have to ask the EU for extra time. There just isn’t time.
The only way he could avoid that would be if he could persuade MPs not to pass their legislation in the first place. But they would be mugs to do that.
So what’s left? How could Johnson reconcile his promise not to ask for extra time with Parliament’s likely requirement that he should? Well, he could just go back on his word. It wouldn’t be the first time that he has.