Nick Kent, who has been a member of the Conservative Party for 37 years, writes an open letter to Tory MPs urging them to back a public vote on any Brexit decision.
Dear Conservative MP,
In the coming days you are going to have to make the most important decisions of your political career. If you get them wrong it could be catastrophic for our country, mean the end of your time as an MP and indeed, the end of the party too. So there is a lot at stake.
You may think that Jeremy Corbyn will be mug enough to reach agreement with Theresa May and get her deal over the line. Really? Will a man who has spent a lifetime believing that the Tories are the class enemy, rescue a crisis-ridden Tory government from a problem of its own making? Most Labour MPs want a second referendum and won’t vote for a May-Corbyn stitch-up that excludes one in any case.
And even if Corbyn does reach some form of agreement with May, it will be for the kind of soft Brexit that your ERG colleagues viscerally oppose. Remember, to beat the backstop it has to involve not just a customs union but elements of the single market too.
So what happens when Corbyn and May either can’t agree or they haven’t got enough votes to get it through? There are only three likely options at that stage: crashing out without a deal; revoking article 50 and abandoning Brexit; or holding a referendum.
Only the most fanatical Brexiters believe that crashing out makes sense. Don’t convince yourself that the public supports this, they don’t really. Or believe that the great public sector bureaucracies that botched the rollout of universal credit, screwed up the electrification of the railways and gave us the Windrush scandal are going to offer us a smooth, trouble free, no-deal Brexit. If you really think that, it’s probably time to give up politics and find something you’re better at.
What about revoking Article 50? It’s technically perfectly possible – the European Court confirmed that last December – and it would be better than crashing out. But that means no Brexit and that isn’t honouring the results of the 2016 referendum.
I know that many of you don’t want another referendum. Many of you have accepted the line that it would be terribly divisive. Why should it be? Other countries have held new referendums on the same or similar issue and healed their divisions. The reality of a second referendum, which this time could be binding, is that whatever the result, neither of the main political parties would want to reopen the question again because it has been so internally divisive.
You may think that if you support a public vote you will be de-selected. But only a handful of Tory MPS have been de-selected since 1945 and usually because of a personal and not a political issue. As we have seen with previous party rows, like Margaret Thatcher’s removal in 1990, local Tories tend in the end to back their local MP.
The decisions you make next week will not be easy. The Union is at risk with May’s deal. Crashing out with no deal would cost the party its reputation for economic competence. Brexit alienates almost any voter under forty. A new vote is the least worst option. It could be the one thing that saves the country, your career and the party. It’s in your hands.
I wish you luck.