There has been much speculation about whether a deal at the European Council might be watertight – and much fury at the lack of guarantees from the European Parliament about how they will vote. John Rentoul, writing in Politico, suggests the Parliament’s “sulky jealousy” might end up forcing the UK out – while Douglas Carswell claims the process serves “to show us how much sovereignty we have given up”.
EU leaders are set to agree a legally binding decision. But it won’t take effect – and nor will new laws be introduced – until after the referendum. That leaves open the chance that elements of the deal collapse – particularly where subject to parliamentary wrangles or court challenge.
Some elements are more straightforward…
In some areas, the deal could be done as of Friday. The statement on ever closer union is a political declaration of the member states, while the “red card” proposal and eurozone proposal amount largely to the Council deciding its own procedures. These decisions are binding in international law, leaving little or no room for challenge in the EU court or parliament, as EU law professor Steve Peers notes.
That said, if EU leaders decided to enshrine parts in the Treaty later – as has been mooted – that might raise some procedural hurdles, as each country would have to ratify.
… but changes to benefits are more vulnerable
New EU laws need to be agreed not just by the EU’s 28 member states, but also by the European Parliament. That includes the three new laws needed to change in-work benefits, child benefit and sham marriages.
Cameron’s office says the leaders of the four biggest political groups in the Parliament have all indicated support and said they will work fast when the time comes. If they voted as a bloc, that would mean 73% of euro-MPs in favour – far more than the 50% needed.
The Parliament’s President Martin Schulz was also clear that he would do his utmost to get the agreement through parliament. That may not be not enough for some. But, as Schulz himself pointed out, no democratic system could offer a “guarantee” on a parliamentary process – even if party leaders agreed, individual members might rebel.
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