As Theresa May triggers Article 50, it’s easy to get lost in the labyrinth of the divorce process and lose sight of just how bad an idea Brexit is. It’s bad for the economy, the young and the unity of the UK. It also means less control, not more. All this is without mentioning the havoc that would ensue if, as the prime minister has threatened, we crash out of the EU without a deal as the prime minister has threatened.
Economic upheaval
Following the plunge in the pound, our purchasing power has declined and inflation has started to rise. This is merely the foretaste of the economic self-harm we are likely to witness when we actually pull out of the EU’s single market and its customs union. Any agreement we reach with the bloc, which accounts for half our trade, is going to be less advantageous than the one we currently have.
Firms will shift some of their activity abroad. That will be bad for jobs and investment. It will also be bad for tax collection. We’ll have less money to pay for essential public services such as the NHS and care for the elderly – quite the opposite of the extra £350 million a week Boris Johnson promised during the referendum.
We’ll also have to renegotiate the trade agreements the EU has with 50-plus other countries, including Canada, and won’t have the clout of the world’s largest economy behind us when we try to cut deals with America and China. Donald Trump will see we are so desperate that any pact will be on his terms: expect demands to open our supermarkets to chlorine-washed chicken and the NHS to competition from American companies.
We need migration
Brexiters will brush off any pain saying it’s necessary so we can cut migration. But they don’t mention that half our migration comes from outside the EU and will be unaffected by Brexit. And they are only just beginning to acknowledge, as David Davis did on BBC Question Time this week, that we need migrants to staff the NHS, look after our old people and do countless other vital jobs.
The Leave brigade also forgets how EU free movement is a two-way street. We have the right to live, work and retire in 27 of the most civilised and prosperous countries on the planet.
During the euro crisis, this right may not have seemed so valuable. But think about a 20-year old today. In the course of her probable 50-year working life, the opportunity to roam freely across Europe could be immensely attractive. Quitting the EU shuts that off – and don’t think there will be equivalent opportunities in America or the old Empire.
Less control, not more
Brexiters may say what really matters is we are taking “control”. But quitting the EU will lead to less control, not more.
We are currently one of Europe’s leaders. We were the prime instigators of the single market, whose rules we helped to draw. We stiffened other EU countries’ spine in standing up to Vladimir Putin after he annexed Crimea. We are a central player in Europe’s fight against Islamic terrorism. We helped secure the climate change deal in Paris.
After Brexit, the rest of the world won’t have gone away. Putin will still be in the Kremlin, Trump will still be in the White House, north Africa and the Middle East will still be a boiling cauldron of instability, China will still be flexing its muscles as a growing economic powerhouse.
Do we seriously think we will have more control in a dangerous world by standing alone rather than making common cause with 27 like-minded nations? After we quit Europe’s top table, we will be reduced to standing on our tiptoes and peering through the window to see what the others are up to. Is that control?
We will still have to abide by global trade rules, including those that govern our financial industry. But we will no longer be making those rules. When we trade with Europe, Brussels will write them; when we trade with America, Washington will be in the driving seat; when we trade with China, guess who will be dictating the terms of trade. Is that control?
A disunited Union
And, of course, Brexit brings with it big risks to the United Kingdom itself. Sinn Fein is on a roll in Northern Ireland, buoyed by fears that a hard border will be imposed with the Republic of Ireland.
Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon is campaigning for a new Scottish independence referendum. Brexiters say there’s nothing to worry about because it would be economically crazy for Scotland to quit the UK single market. They should know better. The fact that it is economically crazy for us to quit the EU’s single market hasn’t stopped us voting for Brexit.
Some fanatics will say that none of this matters. But there is hope that, as the two year negotiating period allowed under Article 50 progresses, saner voices will prevail. It is not too late for the British people to change their minds and junk Brexit.