There is a furious battle inside Labour over whether its manifesto for the European elections should make clear it will back a referendum on any Brexit deal – or on just Theresa May’s deal – or perhaps comes up with something wishy-washy that different factions can interpret in different ways. A row has broken out over what should go in the party’s leaflets. The policy is likely to be decided on Tuesday.
Many pro-Europeans, of course, don’t like Labour – or, perhaps, don’t like Corbyn himself. These people will have to hold their noses if they put their crosses by Labour on May 23.
Others voters will care deeply about issues such as saving the environment, Scottish or Welsh independence, creating a new party in the centre ground or building an enterprise economy. It will stick in their caw to back Corbyn.
But if they agree that the urgent priority is to stop Brexit – and Labour comes unequivocally off the fence in favour of a new referendum – supporting the party will be the best choice. This is because it is the only party with a serious chance of defeating Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.
Now coming first next month is not the be-all-and-end-all. The most important yardstick of success will be whether pro-European (or pro-referendum) parties get more than half the overall vote.
Of course, there will be Leave voters who back pro-European parties – and vice-versa – so the total tally of votes for pro-referendum parties won’t reveal the “will” of the people precisely. But it will give a goodish indication of whether the electorate still wants to quit the EU. And votes for the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Change UK, SNP and Plaid Cymru will all contribute to that total.
But the media will also fixate on who comes first – and that may filter through to MPs and public opinion. If the Brexit Party wins, Farage’s anti-European narrative will be harder to ignore, even if pro-Europeans get more than half the vote.
On the other hand, if Labour stays on fence or gives only “mealy-mouthed” support for a People’s Vote – the word used by Tom Watson, the party’s deputy leader last weekend – anybody who thinks stopping Brexit is the top priority should not vote for it. That’s even if they like Labour’s other policies and excellent pro-European candidates are standing in their region.
At the 2017 general election, Corbyn lulled a lot of pro-Europeans into voting for him with an ambiguous Brexit policy. Labour might have adopted a clearer pro-referendum policy by now if it had done worse at the ballot box two years ago. As it was, the party was able to pat itself on the back for managing to straddle both its pro and anti-Brexit wings. Pro-Europeans shouldn’t make the mistake of rewarding it again if it’s vague.
Back in 2017, there was a case for supporting individual Labour candidates who were pro-European. The same went for some Tories. This was in the hope that, if they became MPs, they would ultimately influence what Parliament decided.
But this argument doesn’t apply for the European elections. MEPs, however good they are, will have no influence on what the House of Commons decides because they will not sit in Westminster.
If Labour isn’t crystal clear in its support for a People’s Vote when it publishes in manifesto, pro-Europeans should back one of the smaller pro-referendum parties – the SNP, Lib Dems, Change UK, Plaid Cymru or the Greens.
Some will worry that this will virtually guarantee Farage victory in the elections – and well it might.
But consider the following. If Corbyn beats Farage without pinning his colours to the mast, he will have little incentive to make a decisive push to get Parliament to put Brexit to the people. He’ll think that umming and ahhing does the trick, just as he did after the 2017 election. On the other hand, if Corbyn is vague on a People’s Vote and Farage beats him because voters back smaller parties, the heat will be on Labour to take a firm pro-referendum stand in the coming Parliamentary battles.
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